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1- Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
2- Department of Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. ,rassadeghi@ut.ac.ir
3- Department of Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
4- Community Nutrition Department, Faculty of Nutrition and Food Industry, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
2- Department of Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. ,
3- Department of Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
4- Community Nutrition Department, Faculty of Nutrition and Food Industry, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Abstract: (241 Views)
Objectives: In 2006, Iran’s fertility rate fell below the replacement level and, after a slight increase in the early 2010s, it has continued to decline thereafter. Replacement-level fertility means that each woman, on average, has only about two children, which is equivalent to zero population growth. Despite this, population growth has remained positive throughout these years. Positive population growth under conditions of replacement-level fertility is a phenomenon called "population momentum." This study aims to examine the impact of population momentum on the aging trend of Iran's population and its implications for social policy. Since population momentum, which results from past changes in fertility and mortality rates, affects particularly elderly age groups, it plays a significant role in accelerating population aging.
Materials and methods: This study uses census data, fertility and mortality estimates from 1996 to 2016, and a 100-year population projection for Iran using a cohort-component method by R software. The study calculates population momentum and analyzes population aging trends through age decomposition.
Findings: The results show that the positive values of population momentum are gradually declining. Age decomposition of momentum reveals that the highest values of momentum are allocated to the elderly population. According to the population projection, the elderly population of Iran, particularly influenced by population momentum, will increase fourfold, and the aging index will rise from about 25 in 2016 to 110 in 2061. However, this increasing trend of elderly population will not continue beyond 2061, as momentum growth becoming zero and then negative due to low fertility rates.
Conclusion: The results show that population momentum plays a key role in accelerating the aging of the Iran’s population. Despite the high rate of population aging in Iran, we face major challenges in the field of social policies for aging. This situation requires policymakers to adopt necessary reforms in retirement, health, elderly care, and family friendly policies.
Materials and methods: This study uses census data, fertility and mortality estimates from 1996 to 2016, and a 100-year population projection for Iran using a cohort-component method by R software. The study calculates population momentum and analyzes population aging trends through age decomposition.
Findings: The results show that the positive values of population momentum are gradually declining. Age decomposition of momentum reveals that the highest values of momentum are allocated to the elderly population. According to the population projection, the elderly population of Iran, particularly influenced by population momentum, will increase fourfold, and the aging index will rise from about 25 in 2016 to 110 in 2061. However, this increasing trend of elderly population will not continue beyond 2061, as momentum growth becoming zero and then negative due to low fertility rates.
Conclusion: The results show that population momentum plays a key role in accelerating the aging of the Iran’s population. Despite the high rate of population aging in Iran, we face major challenges in the field of social policies for aging. This situation requires policymakers to adopt necessary reforms in retirement, health, elderly care, and family friendly policies.
Keywords: Population momentum, Age-specific momentum, Age structure, Population aging, population projection
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