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1- , mirinedaa@yahoo.com
2- Semnan University
3- tehran University
Abstract:   (258 Views)
Abstract
Introduction: Demographic structure and its evolution over time as one of the important issues affecting economic growth has particular importance. Demographic structure can affect investment, savings, consumption, and ultimately economic growth. The present study seeks to analyze the effect of age structure of the population (Emphasis on aging) on the growth of GDP per capita in Iran.
Findings: This study has been investigated in 2018 by library research method, using Iranian economic data that is published by Central Bank of Islamic Republic of Iran, Statistical Center of Iran and United Nation. In this research, the effect of age structure of the population on the economic growth of Iran in the period of 1987-2017 is investigated using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) method
Discussion: The results of this study indicate that the effect of growth of 0-14 years old population of the total population, in short term, on the economic growth is insignificant. The effect of the growth shares of population aged 14-64 years from the total population is positive and significant on economic growth, in the short and long term. Also, the effect of the growth shares of the population older than 64 years from the total population on economic growth is negative and significant in long term (The coefficient was -1.37). All variables are stationary and only two variables including growth rate of the share of people over 64 to the total population and the growth rate of the share of people from 0 to 14 years to the total population are at the stationary level, and their first-order difference will be stationary.
Conclusion: According to the research objective, An increase in the share of older than 64 years old, can lead to less economic growth in the country in the long term. In other words, increase in the share of this consumer group, reduces the marginal propensity to save, thus makes the formation of capital troubled, and reduces capital per capita, so it will have a negative effect on economic growth.
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Type of Study: Research | Subject: gerontology
Received: 2018/11/21 | Accepted: 2018/12/03

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